Webwhompers

The above analysis of benefits and drawbacks focuses purely on short-term outcomes of linking or doing the right thing. What about long-term outcomes? After all, the point of analyzing dynamics is to understand changes over time -- both now and later.

Six Degrees chapter 7 introduces the notion of coordination externalities to integrate the short-term and long-term perspectives of doing the right thing. The influence of coordination externalities boils down to this: I will sacrifice my short-term selfish interests for long-term gains that depend on favors from others, to the extent that (1) I care about the future, and (2) I believe my actions affect the decisions of others.

Example: When my friend lends me $10, I will pay him back the next time I see him. I lose $10 when I pay him back but gain more than that in the long run. Maintaining our friendship is worth more to me than $10.

Coordination externalities influence Web builders to the extent that the following are true:

• Each Web builder can potentially benefit from favors from others. Any Web builder who cares about the popularity of her work clearly fits this description. Her ranking and popularity will improve if other Web builders link to her.
• Each Web builder cares about the future. In particular, this includes caring about the future of her work. For most Web builders, this seems like a reasonable assumption. Casual Web-building hobbyists and malicious hackers may not care about the future of their work. The rest of us care about the future of the Web and our place in that future.
• Each Web builder believes that her actions affect the decisions of others. In particular, this includes believing that her Web programming influences others. Again, for most Web builders, this seems like a reasonable assumption. This is true partly because Web links are public: the act of linking and the act of reciprocating a link (or not) are visible to all who care to look. Anyone affected by someone else's linking can respond accordingly.

Thanks to the influence of coordination externalities, we therefore expect that a typical Web builder will do the right thing and link to other sites in good faith -- even if some of those links risk diminishing the short-term popularity and influence of her own work. Web building is a game of mutually assured construction.